Burning Sun

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“People will lose money faster on exchanges for lots of reasons,” Marantelli says. “It inherently increases spend, volatility, lots of things. And you’re playing against a sharper audience than you’re playing against at the DraftKings sportsbook.”

He compares the effect with sportsbook cash-out features, which gave customers more apparent control over their bets but may also have encouraged greater spending. The crucial difference is that an exchange customer can be facing a specialist whose entire business is identifying inaccurately priced contracts.

Kendrick sees a warning in the history of betting exchanges. In their early growth phase, there was sufficient retail liquidity for numerous market makers to profit. As that retail pool weakened, the sharper firms increasingly found themselves trading against one another.

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Streaming is also becoming part of the product. Monk said prediction market interfaces had moved beyond their earlier trading-led presentation to incorporate streams, player propositions and combinations resembling sportsbook bet builders.

“It was still very much a trading kind of UX,” he said of Kalshi at the beginning of the year. “The actual product offering has come a long way.”

Andrew Gonzalez, founder of prediction market infrastructure startup ParlayX, believes the ability of small teams to provide liquidity is one of the sector’s defining features. “Anyone can be a market maker,” he said. “You have these two- or three-man shops.”

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The research also found profiles of influencers known as tipsters, sports traders and “professional gamblers”. They sell access to groups, predictions, spreadsheets and other products related to betting, while presenting gambling as an income-generating activity.

According to The Intercept, some content even uses expressions like “leaving the CLT [Brazilian labour law]” and “your dream income” to promote this type of activity. There are also screenshots of alleged user earnings and posts that present gambling as a kind of investment.

These professional content creators on Instagram aren’t limited to sports betting. There are niches of creators focused on casino games, like the controversial Fortune Tiger, with a communication strategy similar to that of sports betting.