Starlight Riches

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The proposal also established criteria for risk classification of products and clarifying the obligations of operators and platforms. The measure would likely grant the illegal market the opportunity to continue expanding, as it would be unaffected by the new rules. The committee approved a request for urgency for analysis by the Senate Plenary.

Authored by Senator Damares Alves and six other senators, Bill 2.470/2026 amends the Betting Law, which regulates fixed-odds betting, with measures aimed at protecting mental health, consumers, and the family economy. The bill received a favourable opinion, in the form of a substitute from Senator Alessandro Vieira. 

“This is a non-partisan initiative. It stems from society’s current understanding of the extent of the damage caused by so-called betting,” the rapporteur stated.

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If the research firm’s $190 billion taker volume estimate proves accurate, it’d represent a more than eightfold increase from the $22 billion taker turnover seen last year.

Potentially boding well for the Macquarie forecast are at least two factors. First, there are signs of turnover increases across a variety of yes/no exchanges. Second, volume surged to start September with those spikes arriving even before the NFL season kicked off.

As Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon points out, prediction markets generated $4.3 billion in taker volume during the first week of September without any help from the NFL, building on momentum from the 2026 World Cup. However, the NFL’s impact was immediate, with taker volume hitting a daily record during Week 1 of the campaign.

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“They are people losing their jobs and communities losing long-established high-street businesses,” David wrote.

In his interview Done framed these closures as part of a broader decline in high street retail venues. He predicted that by 2030, betting shops could disappear entirely. 

“I believe that by 2030 we will have no betting shops. The high street will be dead. We’ve already worked it out that with the increases in taxes and salaries and other wages it won’t be worth operating,” he said.