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The 62-minute hearing featuring Kalshi and a prominent lobbyist from the American Gaming Association provided a blueprint for the state’s evaluation of prediction markets next year. Before the calendar turns to 2027, though, stakeholders will monitor races for governor, attorney general and the US Senate on election night. The results in all three Texas races will likely have a major impact on the future of prediction markets inside the state.
Convened by Texas State Senator Bryan Hughes, the hearing in the Senate Committee on State Affairs examined the relationship between federally regulated derivatives markets and state-prohibited gambling. Research from Eilers & Krejcik Gaming in April found that 43% of activity from sports event contracts came from two states, Texas and California. A separate breakout of Texas activity alone is not publicly available.
At Tuesday’s hearing, AGA Vice President Tres York testified before the committee alongside Robert DeNault, head of enforcement and legal counsel at Kalshi. The AGA, one of the nation’s most strident critics of prediction markets, argued that an event contract on the Cowboys to beat the Giants does not differ fundamentally from the same wager placed at a sportsbook.
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The ongoing battle between states’ rights advocates and those who support federal regulations in sports trading is not black and white. Carton indicated in his monologue that engaging in the trading of sports-event contracts amounts to unregulated gambling. Designated Contracts Markets, better known as prediction markets, are regulated on the federal level by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
On Wednesday, a CFTC deputy general counsel posted an ad on LinkedIn for a senior position with the commission. It appears that the attorney is seeking assistance in crafting formal rules for event contracts, a set of regulations he described as the “most impactful” the commission has written “in decades”.
The Polymarket ad campaign debuted less than 48 hours before Wednesday’s NFL regular-season opener. The matchup is a rematch of last season’s Super Bowl as the Seattle Seahawks host the AFC Champion New England Patriots.
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Bringing you series of articles such as Poker on Screen and Poker in Print has been a massive source of pride for myself and the team and I even got the chance to discuss poker in the movies and on television on the recent episode of the award-winning podcast, The Chip Race.
As ever, I am indebted to too many people to mention, but Derek, Bill, Jasmine and every one of the Calvin Ayre team, as well as Calvin himself of course, have all shown a lot of faith in me to carry the torch and I hope I’ve done them all credit.
Finally, I really want to thank you, the reader who has kept coming back to find out what else I’m writing about each day, week, month and year. It is you to whom I write, constant reader, and if you’ve enjoyed what you’ve read, then feel free to follow me on Twitter, where a new destination will shortly be announced.