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“People will lose money faster on exchanges for lots of reasons,” Marantelli says. “It inherently increases spend, volatility, lots of things. And you’re playing against a sharper audience than you’re playing against at the DraftKings sportsbook.”
He compares the effect with sportsbook cash-out features, which gave customers more apparent control over their bets but may also have encouraged greater spending. The crucial difference is that an exchange customer can be facing a specialist whose entire business is identifying inaccurately priced contracts.
Kendrick sees a warning in the history of betting exchanges. In their early growth phase, there was sufficient retail liquidity for numerous market makers to profit. As that retail pool weakened, the sharper firms increasingly found themselves trading against one another.
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But he said he was not concerned. “On the Italian antitrust, we don’t think we are in a risky situation because Italy is not the core of this deal and this doesn’t change the level of concentration in the country and will still be below 40% in each relevant market. So we don’t see that.
“We do not expect revenue attrition. These are complementary brands and complementary models, and we have a history of managing a multi-brand business in Italy, and we already have several brands that run in our business and that are complementary.”
Kyle has been with Clarion since December 2023, joining from the world of sports journalism, subsequently becoming a LatAm-facing senior reporter with iGB.
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While in-person casino revenue declined in Delaware, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania, iGaming reported GGR growth in each jurisdiction. iGaming revenue in New Jersey was up 4.4%, Pennsylvania’s online casinos saw GGR climb almost 6%, and Delaware iGaming surged 35%.
Though Maryland, Virginia, and New York do not have iGaming, prediction markets offering trading on everything from sports to politics continue to make their platforms accessible. Controversial sweepstakes casinos additionally continue to operate in Virginia and Maryland.
The American Gaming Association (AGA) believes many federally regulated prediction markets have transformed into illegal gambling and sports betting outfits, siphoning revenue from the legal, taxed gaming industry. Prediction markets, the trade group argues, threaten jobs and tax revenue, as do other forms of illegal gambling like skill games, sweepstakes casinos, and offshore sportsbooks.